Forecasting Turkey’s lumber industry: an analysis

Abstract

In this study, models are established and projections are developed for production, import and export of Turkish Lumber manufacturing industry by econometric method. Parameters of the econometric modeling rest on time series of past 25 years and projection was made for the next 15 years around on basis of a variety of reasonable assumption and scenarios. For establishment of the most appropriate regression models for the projection operations, while the production, import and export were dealt with as dependant variables, the industrial wood sales by General Directorate of Forestry (m3), gross national product per capita, population, building area (m2) as per occupancy permit, construction materials price index, economic growth, consumer price index, producer price index and foreign exchange were used as independent variables, all of which are considered to be effective in the production, import and export quantities of the forest industry products.