ESTIMATION OF GLOBAL WOOD PELLET PRODUCTION AS A RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCE BY ARIMA METHOD

Abstract

Due to the adverse effects of fossil fuels on the environment and failing to meet increasing energy demand, the importance of renewable energy resources have increased even more. For this reason, starting from the fact that the need for energy will be even higher in the future, it is important that the current status and the possible future production of the renewable energy resources should be studied and considered carefully by the related parties. For this purpose, the current status of wood pellet production, which is one of the renewable energy resources in the world, was studied and a forecast was made in this study. World pellet production between the years of 2017 and 2026 was forecasted by ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) method. Although the forecast results, as expected, indicate that production will increase over time, it is predicted that these production quantities will not be adequate to meet the energy demand.