Flattening Winter Peaks with Dynamic Energy Storage: A Neighborhood Case Study in the Cold Climate of Ardahan, Turkey

Abstract

Rapid deployment of rooftop photovoltaics (PV), electric heating, and electric vehicles (EVs) is stressing low-voltage feeders in cold climates, where winter peaks push aging transformers to their limits. This paper quantifies how much stationary and mobile storage is required to keep feeder power nearly flat over a full year in such conditions. A mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model co-optimizes stationary battery energy storage systems (BESSs) and EV flexibility, including lithium-ion degradation, under a flatness constraint on transformer loading, i.e., the magnitude of feeder power exchange (import or export) around a seasonal target. The framework is applied to a 48-dwelling neighborhood in Ardahan, northeastern Turkey (mean January approximate to -8 degrees C) with rooftop PV and an emerging EV fleet. Three configurations are compared: unmanaged EV charging, optimized smart charging, and bidirectional vehicle-to-grid (V2G). Relative to the unmanaged case, smart charging reduces optimal stationary BESS capacity from 4.10 to 2.95 MWh, while V2G further cuts it to 1.23 MWh (approximate to 70% reduction) and increases flat-compliant hours within +/- 0.5 kW of the target transformer loading level from 92.4% to 96.1%. The levelized cost of demand equalization falls from 0.52 to 0.22 EUR/kWh, indicating that combining modest stationary BESSs with V2G can make feeder-level demand flattening technically and economically viable in cold-climate residential districts.