Determination of the Seasonal Effect on the Auction Prices of Timbers and Prediction of Future Prices

Abstract

Seasonality can be expressed as the periodic fluctuations that occur depending on the season. Forestry is at the forefront of the sectors that are affected by seasonal fluctuations due to being a nature-oriented enterprise. The seasonal effect has an important role, in the afforestation activities in spring, fire extinguishment works in the summer, production of wood raw materials in the spring and summer. Especially the change of the production of wood raw materials depending on seasonal conditions directly affect the log sale prices. In this research, seasonal effects were examined on 3rd class Normal length fir, black pine, beech and Scots pine logs price which are sold by auction method in Kastamonu Regional Directorate of Forestry which performs an important part of the wood supply in Turkey. In addition, timber price estimates for the coming years have been made. For this purpose, Time Series Analysis was used. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that all 3rd Class normal length fir, black pine, beech and yellow pine logs are exposed to a seasonal effect of auction sale prices. It was determined that the spring and summer seasons are positive, and the autumn and winter seasons are negative effects on all kind of log prices.