The Fish Memory Effect in disaster governance: How attention decay, emotional normalization, and institutional forgetting shape disaster risk perceptions among Turkish adolescents

Abstract

This study conceptualizes and empirically investigates the Fish Memory Effect (FME) in disaster governance, defined as the systemic reproduction of disaster risk through cycles of collective forgetting, specifically examined through adolescent risk perceptions. While Turkiye faces recurrent catastrophes, structural vulnerabilities often persist despite initial periods of intense media and youth attention, as well as promises of reform. This research shifts the focus from physical hazards to the cognitive and institutional mechanisms that neutralize disaster lessons among young citizens. Using a mixed-methods approach, the study developed and validated a 38-item FME scale—measuring attention decay, emotional normalization, institutional memory decay, and systemic risk reproduction—and administered it to 747 participants in the aftermath of the 2023 earthquakes. Quantitative findings were enriched through a qualitative phase using the scenario technique with 50 volunteers to explore risk normalization and institutional accountability. Principal results indicate high levels of Institutional Memory Decay (M = 3.54) and Risk Postponement (M = 3.54), suggesting that institutional amnesia and the deferral of safety measures are perceived as dominant drivers of risk. Qualitative themes highlighted that media-driven attention erodes within weeks (96%) among adolescent audiences and that fatalistic narratives (70%) often legitimize administrative negligence. Comparative analyses showed that females and direct disaster victims perceive higher systemic failure. The study concludes that technical preparedness remains insufficient unless the “forgetting cycle” is broken. Effective disaster risk reduction requires institutionalizing lessons against political turnover and moving beyond episodic media coverage to create a permanent disaster memory among the youth. © 2026 Elsevier Ltd