Spatial Assessment of Future Drought Risk in Agricultural Lands: A CMIP6-Based Analysis

Abstract

The acceleration of climate change is intensifying drought severity. Increasing drought conditions pose significant risks to agricultural lands and food security. The aim of this study is to determine the spatial exposure rate of agricultural land classes to drought conditions based on climate scenarios and different projection periods. In this study, a spatial analysis based on the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios was conducted using the HadGEM3-GC3.1, MIROC6, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR climate models. Assessments covering T & uuml;rkiye's Central Anatolia Region were conducted within a geographic information system (GIS)-based spatial modeling framework and encompass projections for the near future (2025-2040) and the end of the century (2081-2100). The findings indicate that under the end of the century SSP5-8.5 scenario, approximately 83-90% of the region may become semi-arid. Model results suggest that, by end of the century, the spatial exposure rate of the most productive agricultural lands, classified as prime agricultural lands and specialty crop lands, may reach a minimum of 76% under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and exceed 90% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. This situation reveals a substantial risk to agricultural production and food security in the region. The coefficient of variation values support that the multi-model results produce similar outcomes in terms of spatial distribution and consistency. These findings highlight the urgent need to rapidly develop drought-focused spatial strategies to ensure the sustainability of agricultural production in Central Anatolia Region. In this context, the scalable and transferable agricultural land class-drought oriented spatial exposure rate approach proposed in this study can be considered an important decision-support tool for policymakers.