Urban and agricultural land transformation and ecosystem service trade-offs in İzmir, Turkiye (1985-2075)

Abstract

Rapid urbanization and agricultural expansion pressurize ecosystems and their services. Long-term assessments integrating land-use and land-cover change (LULCC), transition drivers, future land-system dynamics and ecosystem service (ES) trade-offs remain limited in rapidly urbanising Mediterranean regions. This study proposes an integrated spatial modeling framework combining LULCC mapping, machine learning-based classification, MLP-Markov simulation, transition driver analysis, and ES valuation (ESV) in & Idot;zmir, Turkiye (1985-2024) and project future landscape dynamics through 2075. Results indicate that agricultural land expanded by 517 km(2), primarily through the conversion of rangelands and mixed vegetation, while artificial surfaces nearly tripled from 380 to 1073 km(2). Rangelands declined by > 850 km(2), whereas forest area increased substantially; however, the decline in ESV suggests that forest extent gains do not necessarily translate into improved ecological functionality. Future projections indicate artificial surfaces reaching 1566 km(2) by 2075 and total ESV decreasing from USD8043 million to USD7229 million annually, a net loss of similar to 10%. Proximity to urban centres and industrial areas is found to be a dominant factor influencing urban expansion, whereas agricultural growth is associated with favourable topographic conditions. These findings demonstrate that integrating LULCC modeling with ES assessment provides a decision-support framework for sustainable land-use planning and ecosystem conservation.