Data-driven approach in e-commerce transformation: modeling internet expenditures in the furniture sector using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model

Abstract

In this study, Box-Jenkins ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models are used to investigate the dynamics of internet spending in the furniture sector. In this context, the change in electronic commerce (E-commerce) in the furniture sector is analyzed and future trends are estimated by using data on card payment transactions made over the internet in the furniture sector. In the study, firstly, logarithmic transformation was made to make the data stationery and stationarity tests were applied. Then, the most appropriate ARIMA models were selected, and forecasts were made for the number and amounts of transactions for the years 2023 and 2024 using these models. According to the forecasts, the number of transactions in the furniture sector is expected to exceed 1.2 million transactions in 2024 with an increase of 33.4% and internet expenditures are expected to reach 32.6 billion TL with an increase of 574%. The findings of the study clearly show that there has been a significant shift towards e-commerce in the furniture industry and a significant increase in online spending transactions. Despite the challenges inherent in furniture E-commerce, such as complex decision-making processes and the inability to physically experience the products, the industry is poised for significant growth over the years. © 2025 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.