Time Series Empirical Analysis of Tactical Formation Preferences in Football Management

Abstract

This study examined the impact of tactical formations on match success based on a comprehensive dataset of 66,143 professional football matches played in 44 European countries affiliated with UEFA between 2013 and 2025. The study analysed the frequency of use of 30 different formations by home and away teams and the scoring performance of these formations in matches. The most frequently used formations are 4-2-3-1, 4-3-3, and 4-4-2, which are evaluated in detail in terms of prevalence and average points. The 4-2-3-1 formation stood out regarding usage intensity and its scoring advantage against various opposing formations. In contrast, the offensive potential of the 4-3-3 formation created significant differences in favour of the home team in some matches. Analysis based on formation matchups shows that home teams have an average advantage in all matchups; for example, in the 4-3-3/5-3-2 matchup, the home team's average score reached 2.016, while the away team's average score remained at 0.782. The findings reveal formation preferences and which formations are played against impact match success; this highlights the critical role of data-driven tactical analyses as decision-support tools for coaches. This study, which we expect to serve as a guide for coaches, was conducted using a dataset that can be considered big data in the literature. The findings aim to support coaches in developing data-driven strategies during competition preparation periods.