FUTURE FOREST FIRE DANGER PROJECTIONS USING GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODELS (GCM) IN TURKEY

Abstract

Fire is one of the greatest threats to forests. Compared with other European countries, Turkey is in a relatively better situation according to the fire statistics. However, it is also known that the climate is rapidly changing in Turkey. Since the late 1990s, the scientists have been warning about summer temperatures and droughts. Although the annual precipitation undulates in general, 2013 and 2017 were also dry years like 2008. But, when considered in regional context, the warming and drought in the summer is stronger in southern and western regions where Calabrian pine (Pinus brutia Ten.) and maquis is common. After the drought in 2017, if 2018 is similarly going to experience a dry year, it is possible that it be a problematic season in terms of forest fires. In this study, the future weather conditions were projected using 3 different GCMs basing the current climate conditions in Turkey, and the case of fire risk for the years of 2050 and 2100 was tried to reveal according to the results obtained. Today, for a period of a 5-month fire season for Turkey, based on meteorological data by 114 stations, measurements were accordingly made by using Canada, Hadley and French circulation models. As a result of the study, possibility of fires in future is expecting increase. Dramatically the increases were stated in different FWI components and models at various levels, all the results showed the high fire risks.