Transfer of Uncertainty Across Developing European Countries: Evidence from Frequency Causality Test

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between uncertainty and derivative word use in Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine for 2008-2023 by frequency causal test. In the short term, while there is no causal relationship from Hungary, Poland, and Turkey to Romania, Russia, and Ukraine, there is a one-way causality finding from Romania, Russia, and Ukraine to Hungary, Poland, and Turkey. In the medium term, bidirectional causality exists between Ukraine and Romania. In the long run, there is a causal relationship between Poland and all countries except Romania. Another important finding is that while there is a causal relationship between Ukraine and Hungary, Poland, and Russia, the parties to the war, in the long run, there is a long-term causal relationship between Russia, Hungary, and Poland.